Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 0.945750 1.108199 1.290070 1.508796 1.764781 2.054998 2.409185
2024-10-27 0.658451 0.863695 1.120410 1.465236 1.916749 2.488564 3.269071
2024-11-03 0.528215 0.750630 1.051587 1.488897 2.109104 2.958920 4.215232
2024-11-10 0.466661 0.707714 1.055396 1.593942 2.408964 3.599603 5.477961
2024-11-17 0.408004 0.654434 1.029987 1.644689 2.628590 4.147681 6.682695
2024-11-24 0.353993 0.596895 0.985682 1.654143 2.778966 4.603509 7.804978
2024-12-01 0.306938 0.541610 0.934357 1.640554 2.884222 4.994265 8.869958
2024-12-08 0.269706 0.496331 0.891579 1.632340 2.993013 5.399618 10.011348
2024-12-15 0.242406 0.463967 0.865574 1.648014 3.143051 5.892291 11.373931
2024-12-22 0.209693 0.416431 0.804983 1.590075 3.146793 6.116131 12.261779
2024-12-29 0.201979 0.415498 0.830917 1.700043 3.485532 7.012503 14.577753
2025-01-05 0.177913 0.378387 0.781385 1.652761 3.503872 7.283524 15.669602
2025-01-12 0.156008 0.343160 0.732014 1.601291 3.511607 7.544962 16.805575
2025-01-19 0.137104 0.311678 0.686313 1.551567 3.517199 7.805668 17.987863
2025-01-26 0.126762 0.297485 0.675474 1.576437 3.689915 8.449450 20.122808
2025-02-02 0.123847 0.299745 0.701163 1.687674 4.074970 9.619025 23.651591
2025-02-09 0.117025 0.291765 0.702318 1.741416 4.332429 10.530375 26.701263
2025-02-16 0.108123 0.277392 0.686410 1.751430 4.484931 11.213165 29.289327
2025-02-23 0.098804 0.260577 0.662207 1.737038 4.573744 11.751189 31.587457
2025-03-02 0.090788 0.245944 0.641416 1.728339 4.675826 12.336247 34.098152
2025-03-09 0.084814 0.235847 0.630815 1.744938 4.847211 13.123666 37.276046
2025-03-16 0.075911 0.216497 0.593384 1.683578 4.797964 13.319829 38.843976
2025-03-23 0.075331 0.220305 0.618647 1.800040 5.261907 14.975872 44.832704